So we are very fortunate we have not been hit by a major hurricane in close to a hundred years.". Wind too strong.". A hundred years of good luck? Just how vulnerable? Since then, the Tampa Bay has remained untouched. Dad was out probably to his waist in the water pulling the boat by rope and had loaded in mom, and this two-month-old baby wrapped up in a quilt trying to protect him from the rain," Chasey said." Top 5 US cities most vulnerable to hurricanes. Also lurking in the waves and wind are the impacts of climate change and the higher sea levels scientists say it is causing. But, the note was clear, "my family would be drowned. "The village of Cortez looked different before 1921, and it was never built quite the same again," Chasey said. Tampa-Hillsborough County Public Library System. "Given all the development across Pinellas County, Hillsborough County, the Tampa Bay area, the devastation would be catastrophic. Did the Native Americans Hurricane-Proof Manatee County? Where would everyone go? I have no idea. Parker, who has lived in Sarasota for 14 years, rolls her eyes. Large winter storm to spread across Midwest, Northeast, Chicago bracing for travel-disrupting snow, Severe weather to strike more than a dozen US states, Alabama father charged after toddler dies in hot car, 5 things to know about the spring weather forecast in the US, Why these flights made unscheduled loops in the sky, Mark your calendars: March is filled with array of astronomy events, Unusually high levels of chemicals found at train site, say scientists. "The probabilities are based upon 126 years of hurricane data and storm paths dating back to the 1800s," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. (VIAVAL/Getty Images). ", On October 27, 1921, a report in the Tampa Daily Times predicted the 100-year streak of good luck that followed. ", Ybor City Tampa Bay, Florida, on Jan. 19, 2019. The storm caused at least eight fatalities and mass destruction to the area. Pulling back from the most vulnerable areas must be part of the overall strategy, but its unrealistic to think coastal communities will just close up shop. For Florida, the challenge is so massive as to seem intractable. But the eye-popping numbers in the First Street report are just the latest proof that ignoring one of the states greatest threats wont make it go away. "Cape Hatteras is very close to the Gulf Stream, which enables hurricanes to strengthen due to warmer ocean temperatures during the summer," Samuhel explained. It's certainly possible some of the pipelines could be damaged.". Thats because the worst of the winds and surge in a hurricane are often confined to a very small radius around the center of the storm. We spent hours at the John F. Germany Public Library in downtown Tampa combing through newspapers on microfilm. The storm surge from that hurricane, estimated at Category 3 with winds of up to 129 mph ( 207 km/h) was pegged at 11 feet (3.3 meters). Many of the 347,645 people living. Today, that number is almost 395,000. And affordable property insurance could be added to the endangered species list. All of these hurricanes would have had devastating impacts on Tampa Bay but veered off course and missed. A World Bank study a few years before that placed Tampa as the seventh-most vulnerable city to major storms on the entire globe. In addition to this, a majority of the population resides within 20 miles of the coastline increasing the risk of high property damage. It is these experiences which concern hurricane experts and emergency managers because it can lead to a false sense of security, feeling they have already seen the worst of Mother Nature, but in reality it can be much worse. And while the area has been hit by multiple damaging storms since then, Tampa Bay has somehow avoided the big one. Kottlowski cautions that the Tampa Bay area is "long overdue for a landfall," but he attributes the region's location and the history of tracks that storms take as the reason the area has escaped the worst throughout the years. The population significantly decreased with the arrival of Europeans (Spanish explorer Pnfilo de Narvez, to be exact) and eventually the tribe was extinct by the 1700s. About 2,000 people lived in the county originally, historians estimate. On Nov. 14, 1993, during Founder's Day she talked about her memories of the storm. Graham referenced the past couple of years hyperactive hurricane seasons and the multiple landfalls in Louisiana, saying that in a different weather pattern, that could have easily been the West Coast of Florida. And it could be bad. "The Mississippi River is almost 30 feet above the city level just to put in perspective of how low New Orleans is in terms of elevation," Samuhel said. Clearly, when you look at the Tampa Bay area, one of the reasons why we fear storms is because of the sensitivity of this area and the fragility of this area, DeSantis said. Red tide is back (again) in Pinellas County. The problem confronting the region is that storms approaching from the south, as Hurricane Ian is on track to do, bulldoze huge volumes of water up into shallow Tampa Bay and are likely to inundate homes and businesses. "We have plans in place to be able to get out and do that damage assessment right away to do that debris clearance," Perkins said. Unfortunately, where the hurricane of 1921 hit just north of Tampa Bay was a worst-case scenario. All the petroleum and liquid chemical tanks have big berms around them that, in theory, would stop any petroleum that might leak out escaping the property. They lived in the area from around 900 to 1500s. HURRICANE IRMA: Find all of our coverage here. Key West, like Miami, has a 16 percent chance of being impacted by a hurricane during any Atlantic hurricane season. A family was rushing to higher ground as the storm surge came in. In fact, historians have no idea which tribes even lived in Sarasota County. Follow @TBTimes_Opinion on Twitter for more opinion news. "We know they moved inland during certain seasons. Or, the American Indians who once. "Or would they let a hurricane hit to get even with the Spanish and the white settlers that moved down from the north and took their land? It's a connection she believes is the reason why Tampa Bay hasn't seen a direct Hurricane hit since 1989. But the legend grows each year that goes by without a destructive storm battering the Tampa Bay area. Only a couple hundred-thousand people lived in the area. "I did everything I could to protect their artifacts," Farias said before Irma came through, letting the Tampa Bay area off the hook by weakening to a storm with less-than-catastrophic winds. Thats a lot of rain. The petroleum facilities would be out of business for days at a time. Its almost like when a myth becomes history, Farias said. As the Gulf Coast just south of Tampa Bay recovers from the devastation left from Hurricane Ian, many Tampa Bay residents are breathing an uneasy sigh of relief. He says it's less of a blessing or a curse than it is about the science behind hurricanes. It may sound hard to believe, but Florida has only seen 4 landfalling category 4 or greater storms in the past 50 years. Finally making it by boat to the Cortez Public School, now the Florida Maritime Museum. On the western edge of St. Petersburg, Doris and Erik Anderson live on Sacred Lands. Many people think the mounds could be providing supernatural protection from hurricanes," a recent article by AccuWeather said. As a hurricane's winds diminish, so does its ability to cause damage. "Folk tales give us comfort, so we use something we can't disprove," Baram said. The most prominent story has to do with American Indians. According to Tampa Historical, an interactive web exhibit created and maintained by students and faculty at the University of South Florida; the storm was dubbed the "Granddaddy" of all hurricanes: Fort Brooke was a small military outpost located in the heart of where modern-day downtown Tampa now sits. Thats not going to drain out quickly, said Cathie Perkins, emergency management director in Pinellas County, where St. Petersburg and Clearwater are located. Hurricane Irma is the most recent in 2017. Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, noted that only one of five hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher has struck Tampa Bay since 1851. Tampa has avoided a direct hit by a major hurricane since 1921." This map of Cat 3 storms shows only one direct hit on Englewood in 1944 since 1851 However The Great Hurricane of 1921, The No-Name Storm of October 08, 1993 and many lesser unnamed storms have done extensive damage Links related to the "Indian Legend" The grotto at St. Mary's Star of the Sea Church in Key West is probably Florida's most famous source of hurricane lore. "I don't know if I believe that legend," she said. "It gets passed down from neighbor to neighbor.". "Tampa City of Ruins," "Bayshore Swept Clean," "Estimate Losses More than a Million Dollars," "Refugees Flee from Flood at Oldsmar," "Two Dead at St. Petersburg: Twelve are Trapped on Island," "One Drowns and another Electrocuted. "Port Tampa Bay was also the first U.S. seaport to be named 'Storm Ready' by the National Weather Service when we received the designation. Even so, some of those facts are slow to sink in. No one spared the storm's wrath from Tampa to Tarpon Springs to Oldsmar to the Village of Cortez. With the Atlantic Ocean to the south and east and the Gulf of Mexico to the north and west, the coastal town is exposed to all sides to passing hurricanes. Amid all the science, a local legend has it that blessings from Native Americans who once called the region home have largely protected it from major storms for centuries. On Sundays, the park opens for public tours. In July, Hurricane Elsa made a close pass but stayed offshore. Also known as the Tarpon Springs hurricane, the Category 3 storm leveled the region with up to 115 mph winds. Is there a plan in place for those?" In 1981, Swanson also talked about her life in Oldsmar for a research paper for the University of Florida. Or is there a supernatural force protecting us? A new study warns that hurricanes are getting more dangerous because of climate change. Elev8 Fun is a family-friendly entertainment concept that is coming to How To Save Money While Preparing for Hurricane Season, Prepare for Hurricane Season: Learn New Hillsborough Evacuation Zones, Ready Pinellas Emergency Planning App Updated for 2022 Hurricane Season, Expect a Competitive Shopping Season, Despite Few Available Homes, Gasparilla International Film Festival Draws Hundreds of Submissions, City Taking Next Steps in Expanding Tampa Riverwalk, New Research Measures the Quality of Work and Life in the Tampa Bay region, Ranked: The Worlds Most and Least Powerful Passports in 2023. The mounds were used as temples, homes and burial grounds. Regardless of luck, hurricane mythology is popular in other places, too. The last major hurricane to affect the city was Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which packed winds of 165 mph and currently holds the record as the third strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane. "That the hurricanes are heading right for us and just veer off course.. I keep my fingers crossed all hurricane season," Dr. Luther said. 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Hours later, Tampa was under 11 feet of water. ", Kottlowski said a direct hitoccurs when a hurricane "passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind," which for Hurricane Irma at that stage was 23 miles. It was so strong that it caused damage to coastal structures which were miles away from Pasco County south through southwest Florida and even destroyed ships smashing them against docks after pulling them off their moorings. Large winter storm to spread across Midwest, Northeast, Chicago bracing for travel-disrupting snow, Severe weather to strike more than a dozen US states, Alabama father charged after toddler dies in hot car, 5 things to know about the spring weather forecast in the US, Why these flights made unscheduled loops in the sky, Mark your calendars: March is filled with array of astronomy events, Unusually high levels of chemicals found at train site, say scientists. 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