The climate crisis is forcing both federal and state governments to make tough choices and take. The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. It doesnt matter if we get an incredible snowpack, our soils are so depleted right now that thats not going to really translate to water coming down through the river systems, Meyer said. Frankel criticizes water managers for their inaction in the face of those trends. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. LUKE RUNYON: So seven US states make up the Colorado River basin. "The West might look different," said Hasencamp. The second would step up cloud-seeding programs to try to boost snowfall in the region. But even some creosote is dying, unable to take the one-two punch of both the hottest and driest conditions on record last year in parts of Arizona. In case of a drought like that of 2000-2005, Lake Mead would get 7.48 million acre-feet, worsening the structural deficit that is already causing Mead to drop by up to 12 feet a year due to the Lower Basin states chronic overuse of river water compared to supply. The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. Weve seen declines in snowpack at the headwaters of the Colorado River and its tributaries. Its not quite as bad as 2002, she said, but it could easily get there. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. 30 Broad Street, Suite 801 The bureau's report for June, added on to previously scheduled reservoir updates for January, April and August, paints a dire picture. JOHN DANKOSKY: Luke Runyon is a reporter based at KUNC in Fort Collins, Colorado. This cookie is associated with Django web development platform for python. LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. JOHN DANKOSKY: This is Science Friday. You have permission to edit this article. Is climate change the same thing as global warming? "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". Big Water, Utah It's hard to believe a place as beautiful as Lake Powell is also a shadow of its former self. Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the tops of the dead trees along the shore. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. Lake Mead is the nation's largest reservoir, a companion to Lake Powell. And it doesnt allow ratepayers who rely on power production from the canyon to be forward-thinking and operate under conditions of certainty., Cities, farmers and fish all need certainty when it comes to water, and this is the opposite of certainty, Hawes said. The pattern element in the name contains the unique identity number of the account or website it relates to. The Nature Conservancy receives some funding from the Walton Family Foundation, which also provides funding to KUNC for reporting on the Colorado River. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of. Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River, Arizona. The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. I said at the top that we dont have an official water shortage. And most of those cutbacks are going to fall on the Central Arizona Project system. Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. VigLink sets this cookie to show users relevant advertisements and also limit the number of adverts that are shown to them. Conditions have been deteriorating across the river basin since the summer of 2020. Used to help protect the website against Cross-Site Request Forgery attacks. Both reservoirs have troublingly low water levels at 1,054.79 and 3,524.22 feet above sea level, respectively. We are really in unprecedented territory right now, and its not even close, Meyer said. "Arizona is, to a greater or lesser degree, selling water to California," CAP attorney said of the later-killed deal. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. As Lake Mead outside Las Vegas and Lake Powell in Utah decline, certain policies are triggered into action. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. Monsoon rains didnt arrive. Even lower, at 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits "dead pool," at which point water can no longer pass through the dam by the power of gravity. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide. Since Lake Powell is primarily sandstone, the lake actually leaks water into the porous rocks. And you know, those are cutbacks that users are actually going to feel and that municipal leaders, farmers, tribal users in Arizona are having to plan for right now. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. The district entered 2021 with a record 3.2 million acre-feet of water storage saved up, including 1.3 million acre-feet in Lake Mead. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. Lake Powell is rapidly drying up as a result of the scorching megadrought in the Western U.S., and may completely disappear in just decades. Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. Lake powell has an electrical generation station there. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. A pair of before and after photos at Lake Powell . That deficit is about the same amount of precipitation that falls across Utah in an entire year. Seen from above in time lapse over the years, Lake Mead looks like a spindly puddle withering away in the Mojave Desert, as nearby Las Vegas, which gets almost all of its water from the lake and . And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. Last week, the lake reached a disturbing new. A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. The reality is that it's probably too little, too late.. For the authoritative record of Science Fridays programming, please visit the original aired/published recording. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Getty Images. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, is about 30% full and dropping, a water level not seen since the reservoir was first filled when the Glen Canyon Dam blocked up the Colorado . The lake avoided serious problems during the drought because, in 1999, it was almost full. They both use water from the Colorado River. The reservoir is integrating all the problems we have, all the challenges we face show up in that one number, in that one place, he said. That includes releases of water upstream of Lake Powell, and voluntary cuts in Powells downstream neighbor, Lake Mead. The proposal, negotiated in secret for more than a year, would ship river water to Prescott and Williams on the north to Sierra Vista and Bens, Depending on what assumptions are made in its computer models, the risks of catastrophically low levels at Mead by 2026 have jumped three to s. Some of Americas largest cities depend on the water from Lake Mead. With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. What is the long-term future of Lake Powell? The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the Colorado topped its endangered list. The Colorado River systems reservoirs combined arecurrently less than half full. Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, Latest climate change news from USA TODAY, Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. Here are five facts about the situation at Lake Mead and what needs to be done to address the urgency of water scarcity for future generations: At full volume, Lake Mead and Lake Powell had. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. And as we warm even further, it makes it that much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to. But it plays a huge role in the Colorado River basin. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. Forecasts dont paint a pretty picture for snowpack either. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? Thats important for the entire region, Fleck said, because the backdrop of an impending crisis will set the tone for those negotiations. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. If levels dropped below 3,490 feet, there wouldnt be enough water flowing through Glen Canyon Dams turbines to generate power. : Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY. "It would kill 50 to 60% of the businesses in town," said Franz. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. A large portion of the water in the Colorado River and Lake Powell comes from high-mountain snowmelt in Colorado and Wyoming. The Lower Basin states of Arizona and Nevada have begun to see their deliveries from the river curtailed. The southwestern US has been dealing with drought conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River basin. In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. Climate scientists call it D4. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. This cookie is installed by Google Universal Analytics to restrain request rate and thus limit the collection of data on high traffic sites. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. Weve seen evaporation increase from reservoirs and streams at higher temperatures. And its easy to put them off if you get a wet year. The TiPMix cookie is set by Azure to determine which web server the users must be directed to. We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. What does the forecast look like? The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. Satellite images show the dramatic impact of the 22-year-long mega-drought that . The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. And Lake Mead is currently at 37% capacity. Levels on Lake Powell, which stores water for the. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". All signs point to a hotter, drier future for the Western U.S. Its also headed toward a record low later this year. Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. We know that well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower below 3,490, she said. LinkedIn sets this cookie for LinkedIn Ads ID syncing. The new Lake Powell study looks at the likelihood of lesser shortages in water availability for the Upper Basin as well as the possibility of the lake completely drying. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. However, the receding water levels have already greatly reduced the reservoirs generating capacity, to about 800 megawattsabout 60 percent. These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. The shoreline it creates, in a red rock desert, is longer than the entire U.S. West Coast.. The water in Lake Mead on Wednesday reached a new low 1070.6 feet above sea level since it was filled in the 1930's, according to data provided by the US Bureau of Reclamation. If the water levels drop to levels below the intake pipes, the water flow will cease to turn the hydroelectric turbines, and the dam won't generate any power. Water management requires planning for the future. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. The dam stopped up the Colorado River, creating Lake Mead, the biggest reservoir in the United States. Follow me on Substack: https://geographybygeoff.substack.com/Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/geographic_geoff/Listen to the podcast: https:. Lake Mead's decline is not happening in isolation, but is the result of a two-decade drought hitting the western U.S. and causing critical water shortages on the Colorado River. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one thatprovides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in the 1960s. As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. The Santa Cruz River is now a giant bed of dust and sand. The plan calls for a cut of 480,000 acre-feet, and is specifically designed to prop up Lake Powell before it dips too low to generate hydropower. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Luke covers the Colorado River basin. It took 16 years for it to fill. But the last time it was anywhere close to that level was 1999. The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application. What are the effects of climate change? If its done intentionally, the drawbacks of losing the reservoir could be minimized and the benefits could be maximized, Balken told The Hill. Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. Credit: Alex Hager. You cant go into a drought like that today if its half full. The four Upper Basin states Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are devising a three-legged stool plan to protect Lake Powell. And data updated Monday from the California Department of Water Resources' tracker show the reservoir climbing to 60%, still below historical levels for February 72% but significantly higher than it had been. According to nonprofit news organization CalMatters, California, which receives the most water from the river at 4.4 million acre-feetmore than one-third of the river's supplyhas not yet been impacted by the cuts. What happens if Lake Powell runs out of water? The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. An acre-foot is 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water that will flood an acre of land to a depth of one foot. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. The nation's second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. The water in Lake Powell is low because the amount of water in the Colorado River has been falling for decades. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance. Climate change is driving more than two decades of drought across the region, and making it increasingly unlikely that Lake Powell will ever climb back to previous levels. At the same time,demand has risen due to increased population growth in the West. It also helps in fraud preventions. Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. Those are Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. Lake Powell has been called "Jewel of the Colorado" by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. ", States that use Colorado River Basin water mandated to cut use. Its impossible to even guess the odds of the Colorado Basin getting another six-year arid spell any time soon, said Udall and another longtime Colorado River researcher, Connie Woodhouse, a professor in the University of Arizonas School of Geography and Development. Subscribe to our Daily Headlines newsletter. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. Lakes Mead and Powell. At Lake Mead's current capacity, one foot of elevation in the lake equals 85,000 acre-feet. The lower basin is made up of Arizona, Nevada, and California. Pause your chores until you have a full-load for the dishwasher. They werent able to come up with an agreement. works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. The historic megadrought that is squeezing some Western states water supplies will also likely start showing up in energy bills, because those dams cant produce as much electricity. One leg would involve reducing water demand by farmers and cities in the Upper Basin. Overall, the river's flowis down 20% in this century relative to the 20th century. Answer (1 of 2): It has been forecast by professionals to be sometime in 2020 when action will have to be taken by the Southern NV Water District (or whatever their exact title is) to enact or enforce water conservation. "The federal government generally prefers to let the stakeholders work things through, Sorensen said. A severe drought could bring shortages of half a million to a million acre feet, Kuhn said. Some experts think attempting to generate hydropower at that level could cause damage to equipment inside the dam by allowing air pockets into the turbines that generate electricity. Theyre roughly 25% full now, saidBrad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. The new studys analysis is consistent with the studies and analyses CAP has been doing and is part of the reason its been focusing on trying to protect Lake Mead, Cullom said. Lake Powell, the country's second-largest reservoir and a key source of water and power for much of the West, is more parched than ever.Earlier this month, the lake dropped below 25% capacity . And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. Invest in quality science journalism by making a donation to Science Friday. And what does that mean for the users on the river? Lakes in the Colorado River Basin are drying up and losing water, with severe water cuts now expected across four states - the start of a water crisis in the West. They are trying to negotiate a three-state deal that would reduce water deliveries even further, he said. Basin states of Arizona, Nevada, and voluntary cuts in Powells neighbor! 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